Covid-19 Tracker: The virus doesn’t wait for omicon
Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.
Despite all the worry over the new variant, the old variant appears to be back in business, as cases rose more than 25 percent between Wednesday’s report and today’s. Hospitalizations have been mostly static over the week, and positivity rates actually declined, while R Number estimates continue to suggest the the virus spread is increasing.
On the omicron front, researchers continue to report high spread and low severity, but it’s far too soon to tell if that’s true or what it means. Whether it’s omicron or delta, as the Atlantic reports, for vaccinated and unvaccinated alike it could be a grim winter.
Without consulting their panels of experts, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and the Food and Drug Administration have given approval to boost teenagers aged 16-17. Though there is widespread agreement that a booster will help the elderly and immunocompromised, there is little data as to whether it makes a difference for the young and healthy. The CDC has published Pfizer booster data (pre-omicron) on its website.
It will be interesting to watch the debate over a fourth shot, specifically for omicron. Dr. Fauci, for one, seems to think it will not be necessary. On the other hand, powerful forces are already ramping up their sales pitch.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki ridiculed the idea of sending free rapid tests to U.S. residents, as is done in other countries. Why? Too expensive. One prominent promoter of rapid tests claims that “that the spread of Covid-19 could be dramatically curtailed if just half of the U.S. population tested themselves every four days with at-home rapid kits that could cost the U.S. government as little as $5 billion.”
Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. As of Dec. 9, DPH reports more than 86 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and 79 percent have received two. For residents 5 and older, DPH reports the figures rise to 90 percent and 83 percent. SFDPH reports that as of Dec. 7, approximately 264,189 residents have received a COVID-19 booster dose including 64 percent of residents 65 and over. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.
On Dec. 6, DPH reports there were 34 covid hospitalizations, or about 3.9 per 100,000 (based on an 874,000 population). ICU patients remains in single digits. DPH has released no new information on hospitalizations among what used to be considered “fully vaxxed” for two months, saying it halted reports “because we are analyzing the data to ensure accuracy.” For September data see the latest from DPH.
The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 3 covid patients and 6 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 5 covid patients and 5 ICU beds available. Of 31 reported covid patients, 19 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 77 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration). The California DPH currently reports 73 ICU beds available in San Francisco. SFDPH won’t say.
Note: DPH uses dated population figures for neighborhoods. Between Oct. 6 and Dec. 5, DPH recorded 238 cases in the Mission or a rate of 40 per 10,000 residents. During that period, Sunset/Parkside had the most cases (243), but it’s rate was 29 per 10,000. Of 38 neighborhoods, 17 had rates of 40 or more per 10,000 residents. The Marina leads with a rate of 71 per 10,000 residents, the only neighborhood in excess of 55.
On Dec. 2, the 7-day average of daily new cases in the City was 69, or approximately 7.9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). The 7-day average case rate among vaccinated (not boosted) residents was 6.8 per 100,000 vaccinated residents and for unvaccinated residents, 14.9 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents.
DPH reports that among residents that have completed their primary vaccine series, about 47 percent of White residents have received a booster dose, Asians 40 percent, Blacks 29 percent, Latinxs 26 percent, Native Americans 26 percent, and about 23 percent of Pacific Islanders have received the booster.
For the month of November, Whites and Multi-racials recorded 2 percent positivity, Latinxs 1.6 percent, Blacks and Native Americans 1.4 percent, Asians 1.2 percent and Pacific Islanders had a November positivity rate of 1.1 percent.
Another December covid-related death has been reported, raising the total to 679. To “ensure accuracy,” DPH has not updated deaths among vaccinated and unvaccinated since September. Of those San Franciscans who died of covid-related deaths, approximately 3 percent had no underlying conditions.
All models are currently showing the San Francisco R Number well over 1. Covid R Estimation has kept its San Francisco R Number at a relatively high 1.34, and lowered its California R Number estimate a bit to 1.25. The ensemble has raised its average for the San Francisco R Number to 1.16 along with an average California R Number at 1.11.
Although there’s been a recent change in case and death data among population groups in SF, over the course of the pandemic, racial and ethnic minorities remain hardest hit by the virus. As of Dec. 5, Pacific Islanders have a case rate (based on the group’s popuation) of 2,318 per 10,000 residents, Latinxs 1,401, Native Americans 1,089, Blacks 959, Whites 421 and Asians 334 per 10,000 residents.
