China Protests Go Beyond Demanding An End To Severe Covid-19 Restrictions

The BBC and many other news outlets have called recent demonstrations in China “Covid protests.” But the protests are not simply about stringent Covid-19 policies. Though triggered by ongoing lockdowns, the protests have a much broader aim of ending authoritarian rule and lack of freedom of expression. And so, criticism of draconian Covid-19 measures is a channel to express wider dissatisfaction with the government’s authoritarian modes of domestic governance and surveillance.

Western media report that the Chinese government’s harsh Covid-19 measures sparked mass protests in a growing number of cities. A fire in the city of Urumqi, which killed 10 people, appears to have instigated the unrest. Protesters said that strict lockdown rules hampered rescue efforts, as local authorities had sealed the people inside their homes. The Chinese government in Beijing has denied this.

Holding blank paper above their heads – the so-called A4 revolution, referring to standard sized paper – protesters alluded to, but didn’t (couldn’t) publicly air their widespread grievances. Because of censorship throughout China, ordinary citizens are severely restricted in their freedom of expression. The blank paper symbolizes this.

Not everyone has been silent. Many have resorted to vocal protests. At Tsinghua University, for example, students gathered to call for “democracy, the rule of law and freedom of expression.” In Shanghai, people shouted “Step down, Xi Jinping! Step down, Communist Party!” “We don’t want dictatorship, we want democracy!”

All these actions reflect long simmering discontent in China, at least in some circles, about living under the hegemony of the Communist Party.

The brutal crackdown in and around Tiananmen Square in June 1989 is a stark reminder, however, that the Chinese government won’t tolerate dissent that challenges the Party’s supremacy.

At the same time, the government is acutely aware of the people’s specific concerns as they relate to Covid-19 restrictions, such as strict limits on movement, mass testing, and mandatory quarantining. Perhaps to mollify disgruntlement to some degree, the government does appear to be adjusting its pandemic strategy. Specifically, it is easing containment policies; lifting lockdowns in some areas of the city of Guangzhou, for example, and no longer sending all close contacts of Covid-19 infected individuals to central quarantine facilities. They may now quarantine at home.

Nevertheless, it’s highly unlikely the Beijing government will completely give up on its Zero Covid policy. Authorities are aware that letting go of all rules at once could lead to an out-of-control Covid-19 wave with potentially catastrophic results, particularly in the context of current vaccination levels among the elderly, who are the most vulnerable to severe disease. Approximately a third of the over 80 population are unvaccinated.

What would an Omicron sub-variant wave look like in China if it completely lifted its Covid-19 restrictions? Well, an article in Nature Medicine projects more than 1.5 million deaths and a 15-fold increase in numbers of patients occupying the ICU. Seventy-seven percent of deaths would be in the unvaccinated aged 60 and above.

Also, real-world evidence from Hong Kong reveals a staggeringly high case fatality rate of close to 5% during the Omicron wave earlier this year.

In the end, therefore, it’s very unlikely Chinese authorities will relent on keeping some form of Zero Covid policy in place. China has after all successfully kept Covid-19 deaths relatively low. The official numbers indicate that China has suffered around 5,000 Covid-19 deaths – which is 800 times fewer per capita than the U.S. Though many experts dispute the veracity of the official Chinese tally, what’s incontrovertible is that China has done a better job than practically any other nation at keeping Covid-19 at bay.

Equally indisputable is the fact that China has kept a lid on Covid-19 by deploying rather extreme measures that curb individual liberty. Though ostensibly such policies are carried out with the objective of preserving public health, there is certainly an element of autocratic control involved.

And it’s a safe bet that the Chinese government will do everything in its power to maintain its authoritarian rule, not only with respect to containing Covid-19 but also other aspects of Chinese life. There’s already evidence of this, as a very heavy police presence has been mobilized in China’s major cities. The Chinese security apparatus is using various tactics of intimidation, including checking people’s cell phones and stopping would-be protesters from marching in the streets. Thus far, this appears to have quelled further protests after the weekend. The Communist Party’s Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission defended the stern measures, saying that it was “necessary to crack down on infiltration and sabotage activities by hostile forces in accordance with the law.”