COVID-19 cases on the increase in St. Louis area

ST. LOUIS — The number of new COVID-19 cases in the St. Louis area increased over the past two weeks “for the first time in a while,” according to the leader of the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force.

During a briefing Tuesday, task force data showed the number of new cases over the past 14 days was up 5.8% over the previous 14-day period. Dr. Clay Dunagan said the increase was widespread throughout the area.

“Many counties have experienced slight increases in (case) rates,” Dr. Dunagan said.

As for why, Dr. Dunagan said maps of the entire world give pretty clear clues.

“It’s easy to see that most of the countries that are experiencing serious outbreaks right now are in the northern hemisphere,” Dr. Dunigan said. “And I think that’s led many to propose that some of the stabilization and increases in rates we’re seeing are the seasonal respiratory virus effect.”

He said the COVID-19 trends are starting to look more like something epidemiologists would expect to see from the influenza virus.

“It may well be one of the winter respiratory viruses that we’ve come to expect, whether it’s influenza or rhinoviruses or one of the other coronaviruses,” Dr. Dunagan said.

He said COVID-19 becoming a seasonal virus that peaks for a few months a year would probably be the best-case scenario when compared to what the pandemic has looked like for the last 18 months. Although he is unsure of what the long-term outlook is for COVID-19, he said he expects to see flat or increasing rates of transmission throughout the holiday season.

The number of new COVID-19 admissions in St. Louis area hospitals has leveled off in recent days after weeks of consistent decline. Because of that change, the number of COVID-19 patients in area hospitals and intensive care units is decreasing slower than in previous weeks. 

One thing that has remained mostly consistent is that the majority of people being treated for COVID-19 in area hospitals are unvaccinated. On Tuesday, the task force said 73% of COVID patients were unvaccinated.

About 52% of people in the St. Louis region, which is on par with the Missouri average but trails the national average by about 10%.

Dr. Dunagan said the vaccination process for children has gone smoothly in the early days. He said parents are getting their children vaccinated about as fast as the facilities can get the lower-dosage shot, and all vaccinations have been able to get all the doses they have asked for.

He said the vaccine is still the most effective way to limit the severity of the virus and prevent its spread, but the news about Pfizer’s new antiviral treatment is encouraging. He said the task force is still waiting to review the studies.

“If those numbers hold up, this will become an important part of the armamentarium in combating COVID,” he said.

The St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force will hold a COVID-19 briefing Tuesday afternoon.

The data for November 9, 2021, is as follows:

• New hospital admissions (data lagged two days) increased – from 29 Monday to 35 Tuesday.
• The seven-day moving average of hospital admissions (data lagged two days) increased – from 32 Monday to 35 Tuesday.
• The seven-day moving average of hospitalizations increased – from 228 Monday to 230 Tuesday.
• Inpatient confirmed COVID positive hospitalizations increased – from 234 Monday to 241 Tuesday.
• Inpatient suspected COVID positive hospitalizations increased – from 36 Monday to 42 Tuesday.
• The number of confirmed COVID-positive patients in the ICU decreased – from 66 Monday Tuesday 62 Tuesday.
• The number of confirmed COVID positive patients on ventilators decreased – from 38 Monday to 41 Tuesday.
• 1 COVID death was reported Monday.
• The seven-day moving average of COVID deaths remained the same at 5 Tuesday.
• Across the system hospitals, 19 patients were discharged Monday bringing the cumulative number of COVID-19 patients discharged to 29,937.
• Of the 223 hospitalized COVID patients in the three reporting Task Force hospital systems Tuesday – 62 are fully vaccinated. That’s 27% of the patient population.
• There are 4 COVID-positive children who are 0-11 years of age in Task Force hospitals.
• There are 4 COVID-positive children who are 12-18 years of age in Task Force hospitals.
• There is 1 COVID-positive child who is 0-11 years of age and in the ICU.
• There is 1 COVID-positive child who is12-18 years of age and in the ICU.
• Tuesday’s staffed bed hospital capacity is at 90% an average across our task force hospitals. The ICUs are at 77% of their total staffed bed capacity.