Covid-19 Tracker: Hospitalizations fall again
Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.
Though infections stubbornly cling above an average of 100 per day, hospitalizations have taken a fall while positivity rates and the R Number remain relatively low.
In his speech last week, Biden laid out a plan for producing rapid tests. As it turns out, the effort amounts to less than one test per person in the US. Here’s a primer on rapid antigen tests and how to use them effectively.
Remember a couple months ago, when the Delta variant was on the horizon, Abbot Labs not only stopped producing the tests, but laid off its workers and destroyed the supplies. But even before, the price Abbot charged was excessive, especially when compared to other countries. Now why would a rapid test be so expensive here, but free in Canada?
The Biden initiative targets a 15 percent reduction in price. Let’s see.
The weakness of health care-for-profit has never been so badly exposed as it has during the covid crisis. In 2018, Gavin Newsom pledged to transistion California from the current system of private insurance to single payer, but has done nothing. Many recall opponents will insist he follow through with his pledge after the election. Good luck. Among Newsom’s biggest money supporters are the private insurnce companies and private hospitals.
Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.
The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. Here, the vaccination picuture has been relatively static for at least a month or more. As of Sept. 12, DPH reports about 79 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and more than 73 percent are completely vaccinated. Despite the proven protection, the City’s unvaccinated have been less than enthusiastic about embracing The Vaccine . On Sept. 12, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day dropped again to 312. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.
Our hospital graph is slow to update. On Sept. 9, DPH reports there were 76 hospitalizations, 56 in acute care, 20 in the ICU. The latest update from DPH says 76 fully vaccinated San Franciscans have been hospitalized (a rate of 14.3 per 1,000 cases compared to 84.8 per 1,000 cases for those not fully vaccinated) . According to the CDC, there were 51 new admissions for the week ending Sept. 10 (-3.77 percent drop from the previous week). For the week ending Sept. 10, covid patients accounted for 4.63 percent of hospital beds (-.82 percent from previous week) and 9.3 percent of ICU beds (-3.09 percent from previous week). As of Sept. 7, the CDC says that of more than 176 million vaccinated U.S. residents, 14,111 patients with a COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection were hospitalized or died. Of that number 25 percent either had no covid symptoms or their hospitalization or death was not COVID-related
Despite Delta’s high transmissibility, local R Number estimates remain below 1. Covid R Estimation has estimates the San Francisco R Number at .85 and lowered its estimate for the California R number to .87. All models in the ensemble estimate the San Francisco R Number below 1, with an average of .77, while the average California R Number is .8. The ensemble average estimate for San Francisco has been below 1 since Aug. 3.
For the month of August, Men had 3,159 new cases (or 54.2 percent), Women 2,608 (44.8 percent), Trans Female 3, Trans Male 2, Other 28 and Unknown 27.
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Covid-related deaths in San Francisco are always difficult to ascertain. In the last few days DPH reports 31 August deaths, and 1 death in September, bringing the cumulative covid-related death toll to 605. Of those, approximately 3 percent had no underlying conditions.
Despite Delta’s high transmissibility, local R Number estimates remain below 1. Covid R Estimation has estimates the San Francisco R Number at .85 and lowered its estimate for the California R number to .87. All models in the ensemble estimate the San Francisco R Number below 1, with an average of .77, while the average California R Number is .8. The ensemble average estimate for San Francisco has been below 1 since Aug. 3.
For the month of August, Men had 3,159 new cases (or 54.2 percent), Women 2,608 (44.8 percent), Trans Female 3, Trans Male 2, Other 28 and Unknown 27.
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DPH reports for the week ending Sept. 5, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the city was 100 new cases, or approximately 11.2 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 896,000 population). According to the latest from DPH on Sept. 3, the 7-day average case rate among fully vaccinated residents was 6.8 per 100,000 fully vaccinated residents and 19.7 per not fully vaccinated 100,000 residents.
No new data from DPH but the graph shows clearly the Delta surge has been fueled primarily by infections in the White community. Since the pandemic began, based on the group’s San Francisco population, Latinx residents have a case rate of 1,304 cases per 10,000 residents, while Blacks have a rate of 868, Whites 351, and Asians 268 cases per 10,000 residents. DPH estimates the rate of Pacific Islanders to be 2,120 and Native Americans to be 961 cases per 10,000 residents but concedes these numbers are “less reliable.”
In August, the Mission had a positivity rate of 4.4 percent (down from 5 percent in July), Bayview Hunters Point 6.2 percent (down from 8 percent), the Castro had 4.6 percent (down from 6.2 percent), Presidio Heights had 2.9 percent (down from 3 percent) and Seacliff had 2.9 percent (up from 1.1 percent)
Covid-related deaths in San Francisco are always difficult to ascertain. In the last few days DPH reports 31 August deaths, and 1 death in September, bringing the cumulative covid-related death toll to 605. Of those, approximately 3 percent had no underlying conditions.
Despite Delta’s high transmissibility, local R Number estimates remain below 1. Covid R Estimation has estimates the San Francisco R Number at .85 and lowered its estimate for the California R number to .87. All models in the ensemble estimate the San Francisco R Number below 1, with an average of .77, while the average California R Number is .8. The ensemble average estimate for San Francisco has been below 1 since Aug. 3.
For the month of August, Men had 3,159 new cases (or 54.2 percent), Women 2,608 (44.8 percent), Trans Female 3, Trans Male 2, Other 28 and Unknown 27.
