Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on marriage, divorce, birth, and death in Kerman province, the ninth most populous province of Iran

Our data reveals demographic changes before and after the pandemic. In this study, we utilized aggregated data and were unable to distinguish between individuals belonging to low and high socioeconomic strata. Nevertheless, to gain a deeper understanding of the observed changes in these variables, we deliberated on plausible causes that have been previously discussed in other research works.

A comparison of the number of marriages before and after the COVID-19 pandemic reveals interesting results. The mean number of marriages following the pandemic was higher than before. Before the pandemic, there was a downward trend in marriage rates, but there was an immediate increase in the early stages of the pandemic. After that initial surge, the trend continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace. Finally, we did not observe a significant immediate or sustained effect of the pandemic on the marriage rate. However, the observed trend line of marriages at the end of 2020 was higher than the predicted trend line based on pre-pandemic data. The implementation of social distancing rules to curb the spread of the disease made it challenging to hold extravagant wedding ceremonies. Uncertainty surrounding the duration of the crisis prompted some couples to expedite their marriage registration in order to save on expenses⁴³. This factor could explain the observed increase in the marriage rate.

In contrast to our study the United States, Japan, and Italy reported a decrease in marriages during the pandemic^9,11,13. This decline can be attributed to various factors such as financial difficulties, health concerns, and quarantine measures, which led many couples to postpone or cancel their weddings⁹. During times of economic crisis, individuals, particularly those with lower socioeconomic status, often choose to delay marriage until they have more stability or better employment prospects¹³.

The mean number of divorces following the pandemic was markedly lower than before. Prior to the pandemic, there was a slight upward trend in divorce rates, which experienced an immediate decline at the beginning of the pandemic. However, the trend in divorces subsequently underwent a significant increase during the pandemic. As a result, the observed trend line of divorces at the end of 2020 was higher than the predicted trend line based on pre-pandemic data.

During the early months of the pandemic, divorce rates initially decreased in five US states before rising again in one state¹¹. Japan also witnessed a decrease in the number of divorces, particularly during the period when a state of emergency was declared⁹. Conversely, Denmark observed a reduction in divorces in 2020 compared to previous years¹⁴.

The drop in divorce rates can be attributed to various factors. Fear of infection may have dissuaded individuals from registering their marriages or divorces ¹⁰. Additionally, the closure of courts and unavailability of legal professionals posed challenges for those seeking to finalize their divorces⁴⁴. The apprehension surrounding extramarital relationships due to infection concerns may have prompted couples to resolve disputes and maintain safer relationships with their spouses. Also during the pandemic adverse macroeconomic circumstances could result in reduced divorce rates. This is because distressed partners may be hesitant to bear the expenses associated with divorces, such as legal fees, court expenses, relocation costs for one or both spouses, the purchase of new furniture, and the division of marital assets²⁸.

The increase in the divorce rate can be attributed to the impact of the pandemic on families. The pandemic has brought about changes in employment status and has escalated conflicts and domestic violence within families¹⁰. Consequently, stress, disputes, conflicts, and ultimately divorces have seen a rise due to the negative consequences of the pandemic^8,9,43. However, it should be noted that economic factors are the most common cause of divorce⁴³.

Iran has experienced a significant surge in divorce rates over the past decade, with economic factors remaining the most common cause of divorce⁴³. The rise in housing costs due to a shortage of available housing and limited access to affordable financing, high unemployment rates, and inflation have played a role in driving up divorce rates, particularly among young couples²⁸. Moreover, the price of gold in Iran can have an impact on the value of Mehrieh, a customary dowry in Iranian marriages. This increase in value may prompt married women to request their agreed-upon Mehrieh earlier, potentially leading to heightened family conflicts and a higher divorce rate⁴⁵. Reasons for divorce in Iran include infidelity, extramarital affairs, sexual dissatisfaction, addiction-related domestic violence, and women’s empowerment, including increased independence, higher education levels, and advocacy for their basic rights. Desperation, anger, unemployment, and poverty contribute to the vulnerability of individuals to violence. Quarantine policies further exacerbate stress, financial insecurity, isolation, limited personal space, and poor social and economic status, all negatively impacting mental health. As a result, the pandemic has led to an increase in domestic violence and divorces in Iran⁴⁶.

Previous studies suggest various interventions that can help reduce disputes and divorce rates. Engaging in religious practices such as family prayer, studying religious texts, and worship can strengthen positive family interactions during the pandemic⁴⁷. Additionally, individual or group spiritual practices like yoga, meditation, mindfulness, and enjoying nature with family have been found to be effective⁴⁸. Furthermore, online training and seminars focused on family topics can be conducted to prevent family disputes and raise public awareness about divorce⁴⁹.

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted birth rates in Kerman province. Although the mean number of births decreased following the pandemic, this difference was not statistically significant. Before the pandemic, there was a downward trend in births that immediately declined at its onset. Post-pandemic, the decline continued but at a slower rate than pre-pandemic levels. Interestingly, the observed trend line of births at the end of 2020 was higher than the predicted trend line based on pre-pandemic data.

The study’s findings align with research conducted in other countries, such as New York, Italy, Japan, and China, which have also reported a decrease in birth rates during the COVID-19 pandemic^9,16,17,18. It is important to note that pandemics can initially affect fertility intentions, but the actual impact on birth rates occurs with a delay. This is because the birth rate during the initial months of the pandemic is determined by decisions made by individuals approximately nine months earlier. Before the pandemic, fertility rates had already been declining in both high-income and low-income countries²⁶. On the other hand, the decision to have children is influenced by cultural, social, economic, and political considerations within a particular society⁵⁰.

Economic pressure and reduced income were identified as significant influencing factors that deterred couples from having children¹⁸. Uncertainty in the labor market, general societal uncertainty, and negative expectations about the future also contributed to the decline in fertility rates¹⁵. In Iran, the decline in fertility rates is linked to women’s educational attainment, the timing of marriage and family formation, family planning and contraceptive use, economic insecurity, the influence of social networks, and changing attitudes toward marriage and fertility⁵¹. The negative impact of the pandemic on birth rates can be attributed to various factors, including challenges faced by housewives during quarantine, fear, anxiety, personal health problems, internet addiction, and poor mental health⁴⁶. Consequently, couples altered their intentions regarding childbearing during this period⁹. Furthermore, the impact of migration to less densely populated areas on birth registration remains uncertain¹⁶. Therefore, further research is necessary to understand how social and demographic factors influence birth rates during pandemics¹⁷.

There was a significant rise in the rate of deaths following the pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, there was a slight upward trend in mortality rates, which was exacerbated during the pandemic. While the immediate impacts of the pandemic on mortality rates were not observed, there was a sustained effect over time. However, the observed trend line of deaths at the end of 2020 was higher than the predicted trend line based on pre-pandemic data.

Similar observations of increased death rates during the pandemic have been reported in Iran and the United States^19,20. In Colombia, non-COVID-19 deaths increased in the five states with the highest COVID-19 death tolls, which may be attributable to undetected or unrecorded COVID-19-related infection²¹.

The outbreak of COVID-19 in Iran has caused a significant economic setback, which coincided with the imposition of severe political sanctions. The healthcare system, which was already grappling with numerous challenges, was severely impacted by these sanctions, leading to a shortage of crucial medical resources. As a result, the healthcare sector faced significant hurdles in delivering adequate care to patients, which further contributed to the loss of lives among Iranians due to the virus⁵². Under normal circumstances, death is not directly influenced by decision-making processes like marriage, divorce, and birth. However, during the pandemic, the increased mortality rate can be partially attributed to individuals contracting illnesses other than COVID-19 or having pre-existing diseases. Many refrained from seeking medical attention due to fear of contracting and dying from COVID-19, which ultimately resulted in more fatalities⁵³. Therefore, it is evident that individual choices can have an impact on mortality rates. Thus, it is crucial to continue promoting preventive measures such as mask-wearing, hand hygiene, and social distancing to curb the spread of the virus. Additionally, vaccination and the implementation of comprehensive screening systems for rapid diagnosis, adequate treatment, and provision of necessary medications are also essential in reducing mortality rates.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to negative population growth in Kerman province, which can accelerate population aging and have adverse effects on the economy, healthcare system, and social well-being. Policymakers need to improve health and population policies to address population aging, drawing lessons from the experiences of Western countries⁵⁴. Population growth in Iran also exacerbates environmental pollution, so energy consumption and population development policies should align with environmental efforts⁵⁵. International economic sanctions have had negative effects on Iranians’ health status, leading to increased living costs, unemployment, and limited access to essential medicines⁵⁶. Given the consequences of negative population growth, the impact of population increase on mental health, and the problems caused by international sanctions, necessary measures should be taken to increase the population.

The study found that there were higher frequencies of birth and death in men compared to women, with higher sex ratios at birth and death for males in all four years. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased death rates among men, both globally and in specific countries like Massachusetts, Sweden, and China^57,58,59,60. The higher mortality in men may be influenced by social factors such as smoking and lower handwashing rates, as well as biological factors related to sex hormones 57. Women generally have stronger immune responses, potentially due to genetic factors. Men also have more angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), receptors, making them more susceptible to the virus. Smoking, which is more common among men, can further increase vulnerability to COVID-19 ⁶⁰. Understanding mortality rates in different age and gender groups can provide important insights for targeted interventions.