New Covid-19 Coronavirus Wave In Europe May Have Already Begun, Data Suggests

When it comes to the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic, things may be looking up again in Europe, but not in a good way. The past week has seen yet another upswing in reported Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations in countries such as the U.K., Ireland, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Italy. On Saturday, Eric Topol, MD, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, tweeted, “The next wave in Europe has begun,” along with graphs of Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations over time from Our World in Data:

Some politicians, TV personalities, and people have been asserting that they are done with the Covid-19 pandemic, which may be nice to hear. But looks like the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) didn’t get the memo. The pandemic isn’t like the reality TV show Married at First Sight. You can’t just turn it off simply because you are sick of it.

This European upswing is coming about a month after various countries and locations in Europe began lifting Covid-19 precautions such as face mask requirements for indoor public locations. The U.S. has been taking similar relaxation steps in February and March as well. The ongoing concern is that all of this may have been premature relaxation. Because, gee, what happened soon after the last two times that such mass relaxation in the Europe and the U.S. occurred? Here’s a hint. The answer rhymes with 19 hairy spurges.

Yes, a big old Covid-19 surge took place in the U.S. starting June 2021 about a month or so after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had changed its face mask guidance in May, as I covered for Forbes back then. A similar thing happened again in November 2021 about a month or so after mass gatherings and travel returned close to pre-pandemic levels, as I also covered for Forbes. After this latter surge occurred, some blamed it all on that pesky Omicron variant, claiming that its arrival was unexpected. How can you not expect a variant to emerge when new variants have been emerging throughout much of the pandemic? Plus, the upswing really began in the U.S. before the Omicron variant was even discovered in South Africa. And now with this Omicron-fueled surge on the downswing, political leaders have instituted another round of relaxation. What could possibly go wrong? What’s that quote about “Those that fail to learn from history being doomed to repeat it?”

Keep in mind that reported Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations are likely to lag what’s really been happening by about two to four weeks. Consider how long it takes for a new infection to ultimately be reported, if it even ends up being reported at all. First of all, once you get infected with the SARS-CoV-2, it’s not as if a bell goes off and Alexa says, “looks like you’ve been infected. Would you like to add a Covid-19 test to your order of hemorrhoid ointment?” Rather, you may may not develop symptoms until potentially a week later. Heck it could even take a whole Scaramucci or more.

Then there’s the delay between your symptoms first emerging and your getting tested to confirm a Covid-19 diagnosis, assuming that you aren’t sticking cotton swabs up your nose every hour. Hospitalization don’t usually result immediately either. And when you test yourself at home, how likely are you to report your results to public health authorities? Finally, different municipalities and states may differ in how quickly they log officials numbers. After all, “plenty of resources and free time” isn’t a phrase that you typically associate with public health departments. Therefore, even though the reported numbers for the U.S. haven’t yet reflected upticks in cases and hospitalizations, there may already be increases in infections.

Some on Twitter have been posting anecdotes of seeing more Covid-19 cases in recent days such as:

And Las Vegas-based professional poker player Andy Bloch posted the following:

When it comes to the SARS-CoV-2, what happens in Las Vegas doesn’t usually stay in Las Vegas.

All of this should be about as surprising as a ferret spilling out when driving a motorcycle. Conditions in Europe and the U.S. remain ripe for another surge. The seasons haven’t really changed yet as evidenced by that white stuff that came from the sky in the Northeast U.S. today. Along with many people not taking proper precautions, sizeable proportions of the populations remain unvaccinated. In the U.S., for example, 65.2% of the population have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and only 44.2% have been boosted, according to CDC numbers.

Throw on top of all this the lurking “Stealth variant,” a subvariant of the Omicron variant. Data has suggested that this BA.2 subvariant may be up to 30% more transmissible than the original Omicron variant. And this “Stealth variant” appears to be spreading, now representing about 11.6% of all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples, according to the CDC.

Of course, an upswing in Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations doesn’t necessarily guarantee that a full-on surge or wave will happen. Moreover, political leaders and public health officials could head off a surge if they were to quickly re-install precautions. Furthermore, Covid-19 vaccination could reduce the impact of such a surge.

Nevertheless, this upswing should be a warning to everyone that premature relaxation can leave a very messy situation. The pandemic isn’t like your habit of eating cheese curls in bed. It won’t stop simply when you declare it over. You have to understand and appreciate the science of the virus and its spread and control. Remember what Nicholas Cage told Sean Connery in the 1996 movie The Rock about the VX gas: “Mason, the second you don’t respect this, it kills you.” Well, a similar statement can apply to a potentially deadly virus like the Covid-19 coronavirus.