The vaccinated propor-tion of people with COVID-19 needs context
with surprise, as it appears to argue that the base-rate fallacy
is, in fact, not a fallacy. In the context of COVID-19 vaccines, the base-rate fallacy is often described as the illusion that vaccines are ineffective because, in highly vaccinated populations, the majority of COVID-19 cases occur among vaccinated people. For example, if a population is 99% vaccinated against a hypothetical virus and 51% of infected individuals have been vaccinated, the base-rate fallacy (falsely) implies that the vaccine is ineffective at preventing infection. Of course, if the vaccine was truly ineffective, we would expect about 99% of infected individuals to have been vaccinated.
Kampf reports the proportions of people who were vaccinated in three groups of COVID-19 cases, but in each instance fails to report the vaccinated proportion of the total population; without such context, the proportion of people with COVID-19 who were vaccinated has little meaning. Although Kampf modified the implication of the base-rate fallacy—from vaccines are ineffective, to it is not justified to disapprove of individuals who choose not to be vaccinated—Kampf’s piece still captures the essence of the base-rate fallacy. Would Kampf similarly argue that because most road deaths do not involve drunk drivers, acknowledging the harms of drink driving on public health is not justified?
We declare no competing interests.
References
- 1.
COVID-19: stigmatising the unvaccinated is not justified.
Lancet. 2021; 3981871
- 2.
The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments.
Acta Psychol (Amst). 1980; 44: 211-233
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Published: 12 February 2022
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© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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- COVID-19: stigmatising the unvaccinated is not justified
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In the USA and Germany, high-level officials have used the term pandemic of the unvaccinated, suggesting that people who have been vaccinated are not relevant in the epidemiology of COVID-19. Officials’ use of this phrase might have encouraged one scientist to claim that “the unvaccinated threaten the vaccinated for COVID-19”.1 But this view is far too simple.
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